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'They're Not Just Cutting Medicaid': GOP Bill Would Trigger Over $500 Billion in Medicare Cuts
"This is what Republicans do—pay for massive tax breaks for billionaires by going after programs families rely on the most: Medicaid, food assistance, and now Medicare."
May 21, 2025
The sprawling reconciliation package that House Republicans are rushing through committee would trigger over $500 billion in automatic cuts to Medicare, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate released late Tuesday.
The CBO analysis, requested by Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), came just hours before Republicans convened a dead-of-night House Rules Committee hearing on the budget legislation as they scramble to meet their Memorial Day deadline.
If enacted, the Republican bill would add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade by delivering another round of tax cuts skewed to the rich, partially offset by huge cuts to Medicaid and other programs.
According to the CBO, the bill's addition to the deficit would trigger a process known as sequestration under the Statutory Pay‑As‑You‑Go (PAYGO) Act of 2010, a law long reviled by progressives that requires spending cuts equal to legislation's average deficit impact.
Unless lawmakers offset the deficit impact of the Republican bill or agree to waive the PAYGO requirements—which the GOP measure does not do—the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) "would be required to issue a sequestration order not more than 14 days after the end of the current session of Congress (excluding weekends and holidays) to reduce spending by $230 billion in fiscal year 2026," the CBO said.
"The deficit will explode so badly it will trigger automatic cuts, including over half a trillion dollars from Medicare."
Under PAYGO, automatic Medicare cuts are capped at 4%. The CBO estimates that the Republican legislation would trigger roughly $45 billion in Medicare cuts in 2026 and a total of $490 billion in cuts to the program between 2027 and 2034.
"This Republican budget bill is one of the most expensive—and dangerous—bills Congress has seen in decades," said Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee. "The nonpartisan CBO makes it clear: The deficit will explode so badly it will trigger automatic cuts, including over half a trillion dollars from Medicare."
"This is what Republicans do—pay for massive tax breaks for billionaires by going after programs families rely on the most: Medicaid, food assistance, and now Medicare," Boyle added. "It's reckless, dishonest, and deeply harmful to the middle class."
Boyle highlighted the CBO's findings during his testimony at the House Rules Committee hearing, which began in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
"This is really the breaking news," Boyle said. "Over the last several months, there's been no discussion of Medicare at all. There has been of Medicaid, but not of Medicare."
"Because of the size of the deficits, because of the PAYGO or Pay-As-You-Go Act, that would trigger sequestration of Medicare, and it would total over $500 billion," Boyle continued. "The official figure that CBO confirms is $535 billion in cuts to Medicare."
Boyle: "This is really the breaking news ... because of the size of the deficits, because of the paygo act, that would trigger sequestration of Medicare, and it would total over $500 billion. The official figure that CBO confirms is $535 billion in cuts to Medicare." pic.twitter.com/29mGQj0mgi
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 21, 2025
Boyle and other Democrats said the looming Medicare cuts amount to a betrayal of President Donald Trump's vow to shield the program—a promise that was included in the GOP's 2024 election platform.
"They're not just cutting Medicaid," said Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.), referring to the reconciliation bill's roughly $600 billion in proposed cuts to the healthcare program for low-income Americans. "They're cutting Medicare too."
House Budget Committee Democrats wrote on social media that "Trump promised to protect Medicare."
"He lied," they added.
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After 'Backroom Deal' to Make Medicaid Cuts Even Worse, GOP Advances Budget Bill
"The only reason this vote passed tonight is because they've plotted behind closed doors to hurt even more families."
May 19, 2025
Republicans pushed their massive reconciliation bill through the House Budget Committee late Sunday after striking a deal with GOP hardliners who tanked a vote on the package late last week, complaining that the measure's proposed cuts to Medicaid and other programs were not sufficiently aggressive.
The final vote on Sunday was 17-16, with the four Republicans who voted against the bill on Friday switching their votes to "present," allowing the legislation to clear the committee.
Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina, one of the Republicans who switched his vote, said during Sunday's hearing that he is "excited about the changes we've made"—prompting Democratic committee members to ask, "What changes?"
"Do not be fooled," Democratic Rep. Stacey Plaskett of the U.S. Virgin Islands said Sunday. "The 'no' votes from certain Republicans on Friday were because the cuts were not fast or deep enough. In the back room, Republicans agreed to deeper and especially faster cuts to programs."
WATCH: Republicans admit they made a backroom deal to change their budget bill — but they won't tell the American people.
One thing is clear: the only reason this vote passed tonight is because they’ve plotted behind closed doors to make their health care cuts even worse. pic.twitter.com/BWeEHlafMq
— House Budget Committee Democrats (@HouseBudgetDems) May 19, 2025
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) wrote in a social media post after joining Norman in voting "present" that "after a great deal of work and engagement over the weekend," the legislation "now will move Medicaid work requirements forward and reduces the availability of future subsidies under the green new scam"—a reference to clean energy tax credits established by the Inflation Reduction Act.
Roy and other Republican hardliners are also reportedly pursuing changes that could force states to end their Medicaid expansions, which would strip coverage from millions and potentially kill tens of thousands of people per year.
In its current form, the Republican reconciliation bill would inflict the largest cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in U.S. history, slashing or eliminating benefits for millions by implementing strict work requirements and forcing many Medicaid recipients to pay more for coverage, among other changes—all while giving major tax breaks to the wealthy.
The legislation's Medicaid work requirements, which policy experts have condemned as cruel and ineffective, were slated to begin in 2029, but GOP hardliners want them to start immediately.
The changes sought by Roy, Norman, and other far-right Republicans must get through the House Rules Committee before the bill can reach the House floor. The GOP controls the panel, and both Roy and Norman are members.
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said following Sunday's vote that "Republicans have spent months lying about their plan to make the largest cuts to healthcare and food assistance in American history."
"Kicking 13.7 million people off their healthcare apparently wasn't enough for House Republicans," Boyle added. "The only reason this vote passed tonight is because they've plotted behind closed doors to hurt even more families while refusing to share this backroom deal with the American people. This fight isn't over, and we're going to make sure every American knows exactly how they've been betrayed by Donald Trump and the Republican Party."
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'Embarrassing': GOP Fails to Pass Their Own 'Cruel' Budget Plan Out of Committee
"It is the biggest tax cuts for billionaires in American history paid for by throwing 13.7 million Americans off their healthcare coverage," said the panel's top Democrat, Rep. Brendan Boyle.
May 16, 2025
Multiple Republican "fiscal hawks" on Friday voted with Democrats on the U.S. House Budget Committee to block the GOP's budget reconciliation package—and while high-level negotiations are expected to continue, members were reportedly told they could go home.
"They couldn't agree on how many people to take healthcare away from in order to give billionaires a tax cut," said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), a panel member, after the vote. "Embarrassing. We'll keep fighting to protect Medicaid and the American people."
The five Republicans who voted no were Reps. Josh Brecheen (Okla.), Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Chip Roy (Texas), and Lloyd Smucker (Pa.)—though, unlike the others, Smucker changed his vote from yes to no for a procedural reason.
"To be clear—I fully support the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). My vote today in the Budget Committee is a procedural requirement to preserve the committee's opportunity to reconsider the motion to advance OBBB," he explained on social media.
According toThe Hill, Smucker also said that "we're working through some remaining issues here, there are just a few outstanding issues I think everyone will get to yes, and we're going to... resolve this as quick as we can and hopefully have a vote, ideally on Monday, and we can advance this bill."
The House Freedom Caucus said on social media Friday that "Reps. Roy, Norman, Brecheen, Clyde, and others continue to work in good faith to enact the president's 'Big Beautiful Bill'—we were making progress before the vote in the Budget Committee and will continue negotiations to further improve the reconciliation package. We are not going anywhere, and we will continue to work through the weekend."
Friday's failed vote comes after various GOP-controlled panels advanced parts of the package this week, in the face of protests from Democratic lawmakers and constituents outraged that Republicans are trying to pass massive tax giveaways for wealthy individuals and corporations while adding $3.8 trillion to the national debt they claim to worry about and gutting programs like Medicaid that serve the working class.
"The House Budget Committee's vote is a necessary—but largely performative—step that bundles the 11 different bills Republicans have approved over the last few weeks through their policy committees, including the piece the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee advanced this week and the measure the Energy and Commerce Committee approved after an all-night markup of Medicaid policies forecast to strip healthcare coverage from more than 10 million people," Politicoreported.
As the Budget Committee's markup began on Friday, Ranking Member Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) charged that "this is a big bill for billionaires."
Boyle continued:
Now, we will hear over the course of this hearing a vigorous debate, and frankly, there is a strong divide between Republicans and some other Republicans. There is also a divide between both sets of Republicans and this side of the dais, I can speak at least as to why it is every Democratic member will be voting no on the bill for billionaires.
Simply put, besides all of the other important issues involved in this bill, this is the overarching truth. It is the biggest tax cuts for billionaires in American history paid for by throwing 13.7 million Americans off their healthcare coverage.
Now, those aren't my claims, that is not subjective. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just this week confirmed that at least 13,700,000 Americans will lose their healthcare if the GOP bill for billionaires becomes law. That is bad economics. It is unconscionable.
Several other Democrats have spotlighted the GOP's attempt to strip healthcare from millions of Americans in their critical comments about the megabill, which is backed by Republican President Donald Trump.
"This budget is disastrous and cruel, and we stopped it from moving forward," declared Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), a committee member, on Friday. "Republicans have no mandate to rip away health care and food assistance from families."
Another panel member, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), said after the vote that "even some GOP recognized that this is an ugly lie atop a mountain of lies and dangerous trillions of additional national debt."
"They'll be back with another scheme next week, and we'll be ready to fight," he added. "Limiting this bill's benefits to 98% of Americans and denying them to Elon Musk and the 2% richest would cut this bill's cost in half and protect the healthcare of millions, which the GOP would otherwise deny."
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